Permanent analysis · Regimes
How Blue Rogues Defines Bull and Bear Regimes
A market regime is a state of evidence—not a color attached to one price move.
Blue Rogues uses eight transitional states and requires agreement across multiple evidence families before moving from recovery to confirmed expansion or from weakness to confirmed deterioration.
States are more useful than binaries.
Capitulation, bottoming and early recovery describe different risk structures. Distribution and deterioration are likewise distinct from an established bear expansion.
One signal cannot carry the verdict.
Price structure, participation, liquidity, leverage and macro confirmation are inspected separately. A strong rally can coexist with incomplete drawdown recovery or fragile breadth.
False signals remain visible.
The 2019 and 2023 tests classified recovery impulses too aggressively. The v0.4 candidate adds a confirmation gate while preserving the original calls for audit.
Persistence prevents narrative whiplash.
A production transition should survive more than one isolated observation and should not jump across intermediate states without declared override evidence. That policy remains a validation target, not an active promise.
A perfect retest is a warning.
The candidate resolves both known errors inside a small selected sample. Because the rule was motivated by those same errors, the 10-of-10 result is evidence of fit—not proof of out-of-sample performance.