Blue Rogues Cycle Lab · v0.3

Where is Bitcoin in the cycle?

Compare time, structure, liquidity and macro context without treating the four-year pattern as a law.

Illustrative research fixtureObserved August 28, 2026 · No live feed

Explainable regime engine

A verdict with receipts.

Every classification exposes its inputs, weights and limitations.

Composite fixture score+0.37Early recovery · moderate confidence

Price structureWeight 25%

0.62

Higher-low structure is present in the frozen fixture.

Spot participationWeight 25%

0.48

Participation is improving, but has not passed a severe retest.

Liquidity backdropWeight 20%

0.24

Liquidity is supportive without being uniformly expansionary.

Leverage healthWeight 15%

0.18

Leverage has normalized, though stress can still rebuild.

Macro confirmationWeight 15%

0.12

Cross-asset confirmation remains mixed.

Current classificationEarly recoverymoderate confidence

Observation August 28, 2026 Cycle Lab v0.3

Cycle read

The recovery is visible. The retest still decides.

What it confirms

Price structure improved after a deep, extended drawdown.

Institutional flow and market participation are rebuilding.

The recovery has moved beyond a single-session impulse.

What it does not confirm

A permanent cycle bottom or guaranteed bull expansion.

That the four-year pattern will repeat on its historical timetable.

That cross-asset correlation establishes economic causation.

Evidence required next

A higher low after leverage and volatility normalize.

Durable spot demand through a material pullback.

Broader participation without deterioration in Bitcoin structure.

Four-year comparison

Same clock. Different market.

Normalized schematic paths make the comparison legible while the licensed point-in-time history is prepared. They are not historical return records.

Cycle	Halving	Spacing	Market maturity	Comparison boundary
2012	Nov 28, 2012	—	Early market	Sparse liquidity and venue structure.
2016	Jul 9, 2016	1,319 days	Retail expansion	ICO-era market structure differs materially.
2020	May 11, 2020	1,402 days	Institutional entry	Pandemic liquidity distorted the macro comparison.
2024	Apr 20, 2024	1,440 days	ETF era	Spot ETF flows change the demand transmission channel.

Lead / Lag Explorer

Does copper move first?

BTC × Copper+0.3790D window · Copper shifted 0 days

Reading boundary. The explorer tests timing relationships inside an illustrative fixture. A stronger lagged coefficient is a research lead, not evidence that copper causes Bitcoin to move.

Market regime map

Eight states. No binary shortcut.

The classification changes only when multiple evidence families move together.

Bear expansion

Trend and liquidity deteriorate together.

Capitulation

Forced selling and volatility overwhelm orderly price discovery.

Bottoming

Seller exhaustion appears, but confirmation remains incomplete.

Early recovery

Structure improves while the first serious retest remains decisive.

Fixture state

Bull confirmation

Spot demand, breadth and structure confirm one another.

Bull expansion

Participation broadens and pullbacks remain contained.

Distribution

Price strength persists while conviction and breadth weaken.

Regime deterioration

Support, liquidity and participation begin failing together.

Editorial Watch

Signals become assignments.

Rules create explainable research prompts, never automatic publication.

Watch

Retest quality remains decisive

Price structure improves while macro confirmation stays below +0.25.

Prepare analysis; do not label bull confirmation.

Monitor

Cross-asset agreement is incomplete

Fewer than three evidence families exceed the confirmation threshold.

Track the next observation window.

Boundary

Calendar similarity is not a signal

Four-year stage similarity appears without licensed return history.

Keep comparisons schematic and explicitly labelled.

Halving structure

Issuance changes. Demand still decides.

Four verified block events anchor the timeline without turning scarcity into a guaranteed price outcome.

Epoch 01Block 210,000

Nov 28, 2012 · 15:24:38 UTC

50 → 25 BTC

Verified block event

Verify block

Epoch 02Block 420,000

Jul 9, 2016 · 16:46:13 UTC

25 → 12.5 BTC

Verified block event

1,319 days after the prior halvingVerify block

Epoch 03Block 630,000

May 11, 2020 · 19:23:43 UTC

12.5 → 6.25 BTC

Verified block event

1,402 days after the prior halvingVerify block

Epoch 04Block 840,000

Apr 20, 2024 · 00:09:27 UTC

6.25 → 3.125 BTC

Verified block event

1,440 days after the prior halvingVerify block

Halving boundary

The block subsidy is deterministic. Market demand, miner behavior, fees, liquidity and the macro regime are not. The production model will evaluate them separately.

Cross-asset correlation lab

What is Bitcoin trading like?

Illustrative Pearson coefficients demonstrate the interaction model. Production will preserve source, observation time, sampling frequency and missing-data treatment.

BTC × Gold+0.96Stronger co-movement

BTC × Silver+0.89Stronger co-movement

BTC × Copper+0.37Moderate co-movement

BTC × Nasdaq+0.48Stronger co-movement

BTC × DXY-0.81Stronger co-movement

Correlation is conditional. It describes co-movement inside the selected window. It does not prove causation, direction or persistence.

Business-Cycle Lab

Growth, defense and liquidity.

Gold, silver and copper are lenses—not verdicts.

Gold

Defensive monetary demand

Is Bitcoin trading as monetary protection or as high-beta risk?

Silver

Monetary × industrial bridge

Does mixed defensive and industrial demand confirm the same regime?

Copper

Industrial growth sensitivity

Is global growth improving alongside crypto risk appetite?

Copper / Gold

Business-cycle proxy

Is cyclical growth gaining on defensive demand?

Research status

Live publication waits for licensed series, point-in-time storage, frozen transformations and validation across multiple market regimes. Nothing on this surface is investment advice or a deterministic prediction.

Cycle Archive

Research that does not disappear.

Portal, X and YouTube work become dated evidence inside one permanent analytical record.

VideoAugust 22, 2026

Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Really Over?

Eight signals test whether the market has moved from bottom formation into durable recovery.

Open record

X researchAugust 24, 2026

Bitcoin × Business Cycle

Copper/Gold momentum framed as an attributed business-cycle proxy, not an official macro series.

Open record

VideoAugust 19, 2026

Five Signals Before Altseason

Breadth, dominance, liquidity and participation define whether rotation is durable.

Open record

Data readiness

Every series earns its place.

Availability alone is not permission to reproduce data.

Cycle Lab data readiness
Series	Candidate	State	Boundary
Bitcoin price history	Open commercial-use provider still required	Research only	Coin Metrics Community is CC BY-NC 4.0; public commercial-use clearance remains unresolved.
Halving block events	Bitcoin blocks · mempool.space verification	Locally verified	Heights and timestamps are objective network events.
Gold / Silver / Copper	World Bank Pink Sheet	Approved monthly	CC BY 4.0 with attribution; the local snapshot preserves units, checksum and monthly frequency.
Business-cycle proxies	Approved macro series adapter	Method review	Proxy construction and revisions must be versioned.

Free-source registry

Rights before ingestion.

Fixture validation passed

verifiedEvent-driven

Bitcoin block events

mempool.space REST API

Block height, hash and UTC timestamp verification.

Free public endpoint

verifiedMonthly

Commodity reference data

World Bank Pink Sheet

Gold, silver and copper macro context from a frozen versioned workbook.

CC BY 4.0 + attribution

blockedDaily

Bitcoin market history

Coin Metrics Community candidate

Public historical cycles remain blocked until commercial-use rights pass review.

CC BY-NC 4.0 · internal research only

readyVersioned snapshot

Editorial research fixture

Blue Rogues local store

Interface, methodology and deterministic engine validation.

Internal

Local history check: 365 observations · unique dates pass · chronological order pass · finite values pass.