Cycle Lab cockpit
Cycle Lab · Research contract
Inspect the method before trusting the read.
Weights, thresholds, source rights, transformations and failure modes remain visible and versioned.
Research stateMethodology v0.4 · August 30, 2026
From the documentaryWatch the argument, then inspect the evidence.
Eight-state model
Transitions need multiple families.
The framework separates stress, bottom formation, recovery, confirmation, expansion, distribution and deterioration.
Trend and liquidity deteriorate together.
Forced selling and volatility overwhelm orderly price discovery.
Seller exhaustion appears, but confirmation remains incomplete.
Structure improves while the first serious retest remains decisive.
Spot demand, breadth and structure confirm one another.
Participation broadens and pullbacks remain contained.
Price strength persists while conviction and breadth weaken.
Support, liquidity and participation begin failing together.
Evidence and weights
Weights are visible—not sacred.
The current fixture distributes evidence across five families. Sensitivity tests and false-signal audits precede any production classification.
Look-ahead policy
The future cannot leak backward.
Historical evaluation uses only trailing observations available through each evaluation date. Centered windows, retrospective feature repair and silent relabeling are prohibited.
Sources and rights
Access is not a redistribution license.
Each family is held behind a rights decision. Blocked or research-only data never becomes a public chart merely because an endpoint is technically accessible.
Bitcoin block and halving events
mempool.spaceStore hashes, heights and timestamps with attribution; do not reuse trademarks or proprietary visualizations.
Objective Bitcoin network facts; API implementation is AGPL-3.0-or-laterGold, Silver and Copper monthly prices
World Bank Pink SheetPreserve monthly frequency, units, workbook checksum and World Bank attribution.
CC BY 4.0 under World Bank dataset summary terms, subject to series metadataBitcoin daily USD reference rate
Coin Metrics Community DataSuitable for internal historical validation only; do not ship or render publicly while commercial-use status remains unresolved.
CC BY-NC 4.0Bitcoin daily USD price
Blockchain.com Charts APIExisting Episode 004 dataset remains internal and cannot feed the public portal.
Commercial redistribution not clearedBitcoin daily USD exchange close
BitstampTechnically suitable OHLC endpoint, but no public ingestion or rendering until partners@bitstamp.net confirms and executes the required agreement. Reviewed 2026-08-30.
Commercial incorporation and redistribution require a signed Bitstamp Data License AgreementBitcoin daily USD aggregated price
CoinGeckoDo not cache or publicly redistribute historical series under the free/demo path. Reassess only if a suitable plan or written license is approved. Reviewed 2026-08-30.
Plan-dependent commercial use; redistribution and custom licensing require Enterprise termsNasdaq Composite and DXY
Nasdaq / ICENo ingestion, reconstructed history or public correlation until a suitable license is approved.
Proprietary benchmark and market-data rightsVersion history
Every correction leaves a trail.
v0.3 introduced frozen walk-forward validation and documented the 2019 and 2023 premature expansion calls. v0.4 adds a candidate confirmation gate and comparison surface while preserving every original score and label.
Limitations
A research model is not market truth.
The current validation sample is small, its labels are editorially defined, and several market-data families remain license-blocked. Results describe the tested information set—not predictive certainty.
Blue Rogues boundary
Methodology Cycle research describes evidence and conditional regimes. It does not provide individualized investment advice, a guaranteed outcome or an automatic publication trigger.