Cycle Lab cockpit
Cycle Lab · Macro transmission
Growth, defense and monetary demand.
Monthly metals data adds business-cycle context without pretending that correlation is stable or causal.
Research stateWorld Bank monthly snapshot · 799 complete observations
Approved dataset
A lower-frequency macro lens.
Coverage runs from 1960-01-01 through 2026-07-01. Frequency, units, checksum and transformation version are frozen with the observation.
Interpretation boundary
Copper asks a different question than gold.
Copper is more exposed to industrial activity; gold carries defensive and monetary demand; silver crosses both channels. Their agreement can frame a regime, but cannot prove why Bitcoin moved.
Provenance
The snapshot cannot rewrite history.
World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet). Licensed CC-BY-4.0; transformation pink-sheet-metals/v1; observed 2026-08-30T06:45:00-03:00.
World Bank · real monthly data
Metals regime lens
Copper minus Gold momentum: 16.7 pp
Asset3M6M12M
gold-13.7%-14.3%+21.9%
silver-22.5%-36.2%+56.0%
copper+4.6%+4.1%+38.6%
Copper / Gold · growth versus defense
What the chart shows
Gold, Silver and Copper normalized to 100 across the selected trailing monthly window, plus momentum and Copper/Gold.
Blue Rogues Read
Growth conditions dominate this simple metals lens, but the classification is macro context—not a Bitcoin verdict.
What it confirms
Relative momentum across defensive, industrial and mixed-demand metals.
What it does not confirm
A formal global business-cycle dating, causal transmission to Bitcoin or a trade signal.
Evidence required next
Compare the monthly lens with independently approved Bitcoin and liquidity observations at the same frequency.
- Source
- World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet)
- Frequency
- Monthly nominal USD
- Coverage
- 1960-01-01 to 2026-07-01
- Transform
- pink-sheet-metals/v1
- Observed
- 2026-08-30T06:45:00-03:00
Blue Rogues boundary
Methodology Cycle research describes evidence and conditional regimes. It does not provide individualized investment advice, a guaranteed outcome or an automatic publication trigger.