World Bank Pink Sheet · monthly
Preserve monthly frequency, units, workbook checksum and World Bank attribution. Cycle Lab cockpit
Cycle Lab · Conditional co-movement
Correlation changes with the window.
A coefficient is an observed relationship—not a cause, forecast or permanent property.
Research stateMetals approved monthly · daily Bitcoin series not public-cleared
Production gate
No mixed-frequency shortcut.
Monthly metals cannot be paired with a daily Bitcoin fixture and presented as a live correlation. Both series must share an approved resampling and missing-data policy.
Rights ledger
Blocked means blocked.
Nasdaq and DXY remain unavailable until benchmark and redistribution rights are clear.
Coin Metrics Community Data · daily
Suitable for internal historical validation only; do not ship or render publicly while commercial-use status remains unresolved.Nasdaq / ICE · daily
No ingestion, reconstructed history or public correlation until a suitable license is approved.Next test
Lead and lag require walk-forward evidence.
The production study will report sample count, coefficient stability, confidence intervals and sensitivity to lag selection rather than highlighting only the strongest result.
Methodology demonstrator
Conditional correlation
Public data gate closedCoefficients below use deterministic synthetic returns to demonstrate the instrument only.
Correlation matrix
BTCGoldSilverCopperBTC+1.00+0.96+0.89+0.37Gold+0.96+1.00+0.96+0.45Silver+0.89+0.96+1.00+0.30Copper+0.37+0.45+0.30+1.00
BTC × Copper scatter
Rolling distribution
Full distribution prevents cherry-picking only the strongest window.
Lagged BTC × Copper: 0.37
What the chart shows
A 90-observation matrix, BTC/Copper scatter, rolling distribution and 0-day lag demonstrator.
Blue Rogues Read
Relationships move with window and lag selection. A single strong coefficient should trigger investigation, not a conclusion.
What it confirms
The UI exposes sampling choices, distribution and timing assumptions.
What it does not confirm
Any real BTC/metals relationship; the displayed returns are synthetic and locked from public interpretation.
Evidence required next
Approve a commercially reusable daily Bitcoin series, resample both families consistently and publish confidence intervals.
- Source
- Blue Rogues deterministic synthetic research fixture
- Frequency
- Daily fixture
- Coverage
- 365 illustrative observations
- Transform
- correlation-demonstrator/v2
- Observed
- Model revision August 30, 2026
Blue Rogues boundary
Methodology Cycle research describes evidence and conditional regimes. It does not provide individualized investment advice, a guaranteed outcome or an automatic publication trigger.